Wednesday, October 15, 2008

That was so yesterday

Instead of paying attention to the slow thaw of the credit market, the sellers are focusing on headlines like sharply lower retail sales. Shocker. If this kind of news is going to spark a sell-off then we have too much headline risk for any kind of sustainable rally, especially with earnings seasons where management is going to constantly issue cautious statements on their outlook.

Dow down 500. Armageddon is back on the table. Of course, it always was, albeit my thinking was that it would be delayed by massive government meddling on an international scale.

Bernanke said this morning that it would take time for the credit markets to open up again. Mr. understatement. I think we retest the lows and 50% chance we plunge right through.

100% short
QQQQ
IWM
SPY
EFA

Note: Gotta love the penny bid ask spreads on the QQQQs. It really does take the sting out of making moves.

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